Vermont's legislative leaders today announced plans to move quickly on a vote to enact marriage equality, promising to pass legislation allowing same-sex couples to wed by the end of the legislative session later this spring.
Speaking at a press conference today at the state Capitol in Montpelier, Vermont Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin, and House Speaker Shap Smith said that they were putting a marriage equality bill on the "fast track." Virtually all political observers in the state say that allowing same-sex marriage has majority support in both houses of the legislature (with more than 2-1 Democratic/Progressive majorities in each house, and even with the support of the Republican leader of the House.)
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If the legislature passes the legislation (as expected), the fate of the bill will be in the hands of Republican Governor Jim Douglas, who can sign or veto the legislation, or let it become law without his signature (believed by many observers to be the likeliest outcome).
While he has not said if he would veto the bill or allow it to become law, Douglas has publicly opposed the legislature taking up the issue. At times he has stated he believes that the debate would be too divisive for the state (recalling the intense public debate following the passage of civil unions in 2000.)
More recently he has argued that the legislature should focus all of their time on economic issues - although he has had no problem pushing the legislature to pass a new sexual offender law, or calling on them to consider massive changes in the structure of the state university system or any of the other non-economic issues he has asked them to pass.
Despite these statements, it seems unlikely that Douglas would actually veto the measure if it lands on his desk -- he recognizes that social conservatism is not a winning political stance in Vermont. (Even the Republican leader in the Vermont House has announced that she would vote for the bill.)
Support for full marriage equality is strong in Vermont - a poll conducted by the Macro International in January 2009 showed support for allowing same sex couples to marry - with 58% of respondents supporting (45%) or leaning to supporting (13%) legal marriage for gay and lesbian couples - versus 39% opposing (35%) or leaning against (4%) marriage equality. In the same poll, only 22% said that they would be less likely to vote for a candidate supporting full marriage equality - while 26% said they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate, and 50% saying it would not affect their vote. These results are consistent with previous polling on the topic.
Despite this wide support, it seems certain that there will be organized opposition from both within and outside the state - the religious right is likely to throw anything they can at the bill. Vermonters remember all too well the hateful campaign that was launched in 2000 in opposition to civil unions, with right wingers focusing their anger with a "Take Back Vermont" campaign. Several legislators of both parties lost seats in the fall election, and even Governor Howard Dean has to fight back a vigorous challenge from a conservative Republican fueled by resentment over civil unions (as well as land use and educational funding legislation).
But the environment in the state has shifted significantly since that time. More than 8 years of civil unions, and the adoption of marriage in nearby Massachusetts, Connecticut and Quebec have helped the public understand that granting legal recognition to gay/lesbian couples hasn't brought down western civilization. What seemed like a radical idea 9 years ago now seems fairly routine to most Vermonters.
Another significant difference between 2000 and 2009 is the manner it came about. In 2000, the Vermont legislature only acted because the state Supreme Court had ordered it to do so - fueling reaction against "activist judges." This year, the elected representatives of the people are moving forward voluntarily and without court pressure. (If successful, this would be the first time a state enacts marriage without a court requirement.)
A significant amount of the credit for the change in attitudes has to go to the very hard-working and effective Vermont Freedom to Marry Task Force who have been working for more than a decade to build support for marriage equality - conducting extensive grassroots public education campaigns, working with media in the state, and building coalitions of religious, legal, business and parents supporters.
Beginning tonight, the Freedom to Marry Task Force is proactively launching television ads to further educate and build support. You can see the first ad here (Sorry, my Luddite brain hasn't mastered the art of embedding videos.) And you can donate to help the Freedom to Marry Task Force run the ad here.
Coming the same day that the California Supreme Court heard arguments that could lead to over-turning Proposition 8, this is one more sign that history is moving in the direction of marriage equality for all couples.